IndianaWeatherOnline.com Blog

Heavy Rain & Strong Thunderstorms This Weekend

2010-04-29T22:44:00.003-04:00

Heavy rainfall and strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning Friday Night and continuing through Sunday. A low pressure system will move West of the area and will cause heavy rainfall to develop across the Ohio Valley as moisture surges North towards the Ohio River Valley.

Current indications are that between Friday Night and Monday, 3-5 inches of rain could fall across a large portion of the area with isolated higher amounts. Flooding is possible, and flash flood watches have been issued for Southern Indiana.

We will also be monitoring the possibility for strong to severe thunderstorms, and the Storm Prediction Center does have all of Indiana and Western Ohio outlined for a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms during the day on Saturday.

Brandon Redmond

Winter Storm Update

2008-12-18T21:16:00.001-05:00

IndianaWeatherOnline.com Winter Storm Update
Issued: December 18th, 2008 at 9:00 PM by Brandon Redmond

Ice Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories Remain In Effect

Freezing rain is currently moving into the state of Indiana and will eventually move into Ohio during the next several hours. The freezing line currently runs from about St Louis to Cincinatti and will slowly creep North over the next several hours.

Heavy freezing rain will likely move into Western Indiana over the next several hours and precipitation rates could reach a quarter of an inch an hour.

The icing situation tonight and early on Friday will be a race against time. The ultimate question is how fast do we warm above freezing? The longer temepratures stay below freezing, obviously the worse the ice situation will get.

I ultimately think that the freezing line will reach Interstate 70 around 5:00 AM and then reach Lafayette, Muncie, Greenville and Troy around 9:00 AM. Total ice accumulations will be less than a quarter of an inch South of Interstate 70 with up to a half inch from Lafaytte to Muncie over to Greenville.

Widespread ice related problems begin to occur when ice accumulations reach a half inch, so it will be very close for areas North of Interstate 70. Needless to say, I will be up all night and will be updating the blog on IndianaWeatherOnline.com, the weather alert emails and the forecasts on WhiteWater Broadcasting.

If you have any details or reports on what is happening in your backyard, please visit our weather message board at www.LetsTalkWeather.net or www.MidwestWeatherForums.com

Stay tuned!
Brandon Redmond
www.IndianaWeatherOnline.com
WhiteWater Broadcasting

First Winter Weather Advisory Of The Season

2008-12-15T03:23:00.001-05:00

IndianaWeatherOnline.com Winter Weather Alert
Issued by: Brandon Redmond on December 15th, 2008 at 2:00 AM

Our first real dose of winter weather will affect most of the state this morning and into the early afternoon as a "hyped" up cold front plows across Indiana and into Ohio.

Temperatures have been dropping well over 40 degrees once the front has passed across areas to our west and with that sudden temperature drop also came wintry weather.

As the front crosses Indiana and Ohio today heavy rain will change to freezing rain, sleet and snow. The period of freezing rain will most likely be short lived but with heavy precipitation rates, some quick ice accumulations will be possible. Once the front slides farther to the East the freezing rain will change to sleet and snow with up to an inch of snow/sleet accumulation.

The other problem we will face is what is called a flash freeze. With temperatures dropping well below freezing, the moisture leftover but the nights heavy rain on area roadways will rapidly freeze and this combined with the winter precipitation falling will create horrific road conditions across the area.

So needless to say, hopefully you enjoyed the warm weather yesterday because it will quickly be replaced by winter once again today.

P.S. We are also watching at least two more systems which could bring winter weather to the Ohio Valley later this week!

Brandon Redmond
www.IndianaWeatherOnline.com
Whitewater Broadcasting

Active Storm Pattern

2008-12-02T19:02:00.000-05:00

A very active storm pattern will continue over the next 7-10 days with multiple storm systems affecting the area.

The first storm will begin to impact the Ohio Valley by tomorrow afternoon (Wednesday Afternoon) and most of the precipitation will begin as rain. As a very powerful cold front moves across the region, the rain will quickly turn to snow and much of the area could experience a flash freeze. A flash freeze is when temperatures rapidly drop causing leftover moisture to instantly freeze on surfaces. This could create hazardous conditions tomorrow evening and Thursday morning.

Behind the front light snow will be possible, but accumulations will be light with most areas receiving less than an inch of snowfall. Some areas in far Northwestern Indiana could see slightly higher amounts.

A clipper system will affect the region early next week and could bring another round of winter weather to the Ohio Valley.

December Forecast

2008-11-20T00:41:00.003-05:00

Below are my maps for the month of December. Needless to say I am continuing to forecast below to much below normal temperatures as Arctic Air will continue to dominate our temperatures across the Ohio Valley at least through the middle to end of the month. By the end of the month, signs point towards a neutral Arctic Oscillation, which would cause the Arctic Air's hold on the region to weaken and allow our temperatures to return to near normal values. Needless to say, be ready for a very cold beginning of the month!

Major Lake-Effect Snow Event Tonight

2008-11-17T20:35:00.002-05:00

The first Lake-Effect Snow Event of the season is underway across portions of Northern and Northwestern Indiana. Lake-Effect Snow Advisories and Warnings have been posted across a large portion of Northern Indiana. The radar image below shows the Lake-Effect Snow bands that are currently setting up across the area.

Lake-Effect Snow Monday Night

2008-11-14T19:04:00.007-05:00

An extremely favorable set-up for Lake-Effect Snowfall will come together late Monday Night and into Tuesday across Northwestern Indiana. Depending on the exact trajectory of the Lake-Effect snowfall bands off of Lake Michigan, some locations in Northwestern Indiana could get close to a foot of snowfall. It is still way to early to pinpoint where the Lake-Effect snow bands will set up and where the heaviest snow will occur, but it is something we will be watching very closely!

Cold Air Next Week

2008-11-13T20:28:00.001-05:00

Rumbles of Thunder followed by Flakes of Snow?

2008-11-13T18:20:00.000-05:00

A very dynamic system will impact the area on Friday Night into Saturday. As a cold front sweeps through the area, moisture along the front will increase and some pre-frontal precipitation will develop. With strong dynamics and strong upper-level winds, it won't take much precipitation to transfer down some of the stronger winds to the surface. Winds in some of the "thundershowers" could gust to 50 or 55 mph at times.

As the front quickly swings across the state, a low pressure will develop across the Appalachian Mountains and move Northeast. This will cause a secondary area of precipitation to develop, and more rain and snow will be possible on Saturday. As cold air becomes entrenched in the system, rain will begin to mix with snow from Northwest to Southeast across the state.

Areas close to Lake Michigan will have somewhat of a heat island effect, and could potentially see a slower transition to snow, but most areas in Northwest Indiana will changeover to snow fairly early in the morning on Saturday. Some light snowfall accumulations are possible, and with strong gusty winds, lowered visibilities are possible in the Northern half of the state.

Beyond this weekend's storm, very cold air will remain in place next week as renewed cold air masses swing Southeast out of Canada.

Below is an image from the European Forecast Model for early next week, showing just how cold temperatures will be across a large part of the country.

Get Ready For A Quick Burst of Winter

2008-11-13T00:11:00.000-05:00

A strong cold front will plow through the state on Friday Night and Saturday and as it does so, several hours of rain and possibly even heavy rain will be possible on Friday Afternoon and Evening. Strong dynamics with the system could lead to a few rumbles of thunder.

As the cold front moves across the state, winds will become quite brisk and areas across Northern and Northwestern will begin to see the rain mix with snow as colder air infiltrates the region. The entire area will begin to see light snow showers by Saturday Afternoon and Evening.

A very cold airmass will remain in place through the early part of next week!

Bitterly Cold

2008-11-11T05:28:00.000-05:00

The forecast models are consistently showing wave after wave of Arctic air affecting the Midwest and Ohio Valley over the next several weeks.

One of the main reasons this is occurring is due to something that is called the Arctic Oscillation which has recently reversed and gone negative. This will allow the Arctic Air that is pooling in Canada to swing into the Northern United States and Midwest.

As a ridge builds across the Western United States, troughs of low pressure will swing down with associated colds fronts every few days which will ultimately usher in new and colder air masses every few days across the Midwest.

It appears that this November will fall well below normal as far as temperatures are concerned and this November could be one of the coldest Novembers in over a decade if the pattern materializes like I think it will.

The first wave of Arctic Air will arrive this weekend, with high temperatures only climbing into the 30's and lows at night falling well into the 20's. A second frontal passage will occur early next week, followed by a second Arctic airmass with bitterly cold air intruding into the Midwest and Ohio Valley.

A brief warm up will occur next week before a third Arctic outbreak occurs around the 20th of this month.

There are also signs that around the 20th or 21st that a significant weather system could affect the Ohio Valley and with cold air in place, its not out of the question that somewhere across the region could see accumulation snow.

All I have to say is that Old Man Winter is definitely making his presence felt, and for that matter its not even officially Winter yet! One thing is for sure.........get the Winter coats out and crank up the heat, because the cold is here to stay!

Election Day Forecast

2008-11-02T21:07:00.000-05:00

Late Season Severe Weather Episode?

2008-11-02T21:03:00.000-05:00

A strong storm could cause Severe Storms to break-out across portions of the Plains and Midwest later this week. A detailed analysis of the storm will be forthcoming tomorrow, but for now here are our Severe Weather Outlook Maps for Wednesday and Thursday!

2008-10-30T02:34:00.000-04:00

IndianaWeatherOnline.com 2008-2009 Winter Forecast!

2008-10-22T21:10:00.000-04:00

IndianaWeatherOnline.com Winter 2008-2009 Forecast
Issued by Brandon Redmond on October 22nd, 2008

So far this Autumn, except for the past several days, temperatures have continually been at or above normal while precipitation has been well below normal in most locations. The key questions is will this trend continue into the Winter?

After an amazingly cold and snowy winter last year, it will be hard even with near normal or even above normal snowfall to compare to the extremely overactive winter we experienced in 2007-2008.

Sea Surface Temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific are just one of the various indicators we use in long-range forecasting. There are three terms used to describe Temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific: El Nino, La Nina and ENSO Neutral. Typically here in the Ohio Valley, El Nino years typically result in warmer Winter Seasons, while like last year, La Nina years often provide plenty of snowfall across the Central United States.

La Nina years typically tend to provide a wealth of snowfall across our area due to several reasons. First, the Pacific Jet Stream tends to track farther North across the Central United States, often times causing storm system after storm to track Northeast across the Midwest and Ohio Valley. During ENSO Neutral/La Nina years, the Pacific Jet also tends to come onshore farther North, generally in the Pacific Northwest. At the same time, while the Polar Jet often dives Southeast out of Western and Central Canada bringing cold Arctic air down into the United States. As these two jets collide across the Central United States, the recipe is right for major winter storms. The Midwest/Ohio also tend to experience an abundance of clipper-type systems due to a strong Polar Jet, which in-turn also often times means above-normal Lake-Effect Snowfall in favored areas.

The opposite occurs during El Nino years. The Pacific Jet often tracks well South of our area, causing 90% of the storm systems to have no affect on the Ohio Valley and leaving us high and dry. The Polar jet tends to track well East of the Ohio Valley, and leaves us with above to well-above normal temperatures.

Currently Sea Surface Temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific are ENSO Neutral, but the latest trends would indicate that a weak La Nina could develop during the next several months. Over the past several months, we can already see temperatures starting to gradually fall across the Equatorial Pacific and by the beginning of 2009, it is definitely possible that a weak La Nina could be in place.

Another factor used in our seasonal and long range forecasts are our long-range forecast models. The CFS (Climate Forecast System) is a long-range forecast model that forecasts trends out to 9 months in advance. It has consistently shown near normal precipitation values through January with above normal precipitation in February and March. The CFS shows near normal temperatures for the entire Winter Season.

A third factor used in long-range and Seasonal Forecasting is Climatology and Current Trends. During the past several weeks, cold air has been building in Canada, and we have already been clipped with a semi-Arctic airmass over the past several days, and will likely experience another shot of Arctic air during the upcoming week. While snow depth and coverage across North America has been running below normal so far this year, that looks to quickly change over the next 7-14 days with several major Autumn Storms dumping several inches of snow across the Plains and well into Canada.

So after all of that Meteorological Lingo, what is my forecast for this upcoming Winter for the Ohio Valley? Here is the break down:

I generally feel that we will see a weak La Nina by January or February of 2009. With the likelihood of an active Pacific Jet and for that matter a strong/active Polar Jet, I think we will in general terms see an active Winter. Our weather systems will generally dive Southeast across the Rocky's and then move East Southeast across the Plains and into the Lower Ohio Valley. Another prominent storm track as mentioned above will be out of Central Canada (Clipper-Type Systems) that dive Southeast along the Polar Jet across the Plains and into the Midwest. Between the two, the chances for an active Winter are definitely higher than normal. Those Clipper Systems will also re-enforce the Cold Air intrusion across the Midwest and Ohio Valley.

I feel that temperatures through the Winter will be the big story, as I have above-normal confidence we will experience Below-Normal temperatures December, January and February. Needless to say, if you were hoping for a mild Winter to offset those expensive heating bills, that's not looking to likely for the upcoming Winter. Precipitation (All types included) will most likely be slightly above normal, especially in January and February. I am forecasting near normal snowfall for the Ohio Valley and Midwest.

Precipitation (All Types Included): 100 - 125% of Normal for the Entire Winter Season
Snowfall: Near Normal for the Entire Winter Season
Temperatures: 1-2 Degrees Below Normal for the Entire Winter Season

Watching the Tropics

2008-08-15T03:35:00.000-04:00

A strong tropical wave located just East of Puerto Rico has meteorologists glued to the edge of their seats as we wait to see whether this system develops into a tropical storm and eventually into a possible Hurricane.

Most of our forecast model guidance suggest this system will develop and rapidly strengthen into a Hurricane. If this does indeed happen, the East Coast of Florida could very well be in danger from what we will most likely eventually call Hurricane Fay.

In fact, by looking at the latest radar and satellite imagery, there is strong evidence to suggest that this system is already a tropical storm.

NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircrafts are currently investigating this system and along with the rest of the meteorology community, I am anxiously waiting to see what this storm does and what the Aircraft find.

Here is a look at the system via early Friday morning satellite images:

As you can see via the above images, this system indeed does look like that of a tropical cyclone.